GWO   Earthquake   Project
    
Introduction  click here to go directly to California Forecast Page

Earth is very complex. On the surface there is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water
vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet.  The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused
by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and
water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the Lunisolar 
Precession.  The gravitation oscillations cause great stress and tidal fluctuations on the earfth's atmosphere and
oceans on the surface of the earth, and fluctuations in the geomagnetic field have influence on the internal
rhythm of the earth beneath our feet.  Click here for a detailed description of the dynamics that cause earthquakes,
and why they can be predicted by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and
forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of
these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm.  One such rhythm of the planet, that
which most of us are not aware of,  but do occasionally feel or see, is the rhythm of earthquakes.  Hundreds of
earthquakes occur daily around the world,  and thousands during the course of a year.  Only a small fraction of
these occurrences are major earthquakes which can cause severe damage in a region.

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), with nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of
Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather,
climate and geologic seismic data to develop techniques for climate prediction and occurrences of major
earthquakes.   The most significant discovery by GWO indicates that oscillations of external forcing mechanisms
are highly linked to the internal rhythm of the earth, and to cycles in the rhythm which caused regional major
earthquakes.

Recognizing the oscillations of external mechanisms which cause cyclical stress and influcence on the earth's
atmosphere, oceans and internal structure beneath the surface of earth, GWO has developed a model that can
correlate what GWO calls the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)" to recurring major earthquake cycles within a
geographic region, such as California and other regions around the world.



  • The forecast pinpoints the expected year and the most likely season of the year it will occur.  The GWO model correlated approximately 90 percent with major California earthquakes since the year 1899.  The expected performance of the GWO earthquake model is also expected to be in the 90 percent range.

  • Probabilities will be assigned to the liklihood of the magnitude quake expected.
  For example;   90 percent overall probability of an earthquake in the range of 6.4 to 7.8.   A risk probability
  of  60 percent  for a magnitude 7 to 7.8 magnitude.  A risk probability of  50 percent  for a magnitude                6.4 to 6.9 earthquake. 

  • The probability forecasts and ranges will differ from region to region around the world.The following is a "Sample" forecast depicting type of forecasts GWO clients would receive.


Availability of Regional Earthquake Forecasts by GWO

  • GWO regional earthquake forecasts are formulated as a planning tool for insurance companies, Reinsurance companies, state governments and institutions or compaines requiring earthquake planning.


  • Click here for a detailed description of the dynamics that cause earthquakes, and why they can be predicted by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.


Sample Forecast - see below  (click here for California earthquake forecast released April 2012)

Region 3
GWO Risk Probability Predictions for Major Earthquakes
6.4 Magnitude and Greater

*this is a real forecast, dates have been changed

GWO Predicted Earthquake Risk
Years 2021 to 2027

Historical Frequency

Based on 111 years of record (1900-2010) for strong earthquake magnitudes of 6.4 to 6.9 and major quakes of  7 or
greater, there were 24 earthquake years in this region.  This is a very high risk frequency in which an average of 1
strong to major earthquake can be expected every 5 years.  Examination of strong earthquakes with magnitudes of
6.4 to 6.9, showed 11 occurrence years during the 111 year, giving an expected return risk of 1 strong quake year
every 10 years.  Of greater significance: 13 major earthquakes with magnitudes of 7 or greater occurred during the
period, giving an expected return risk of 1 every 12 years. There was only 1 quake greater than 7.4.  This occurred
in 1906 with a magnitude of 7.8.  Going back an additional 100 years to the year 1800 (total of 211 years), a 7.8
occurred in 1892,  and a 7.9 in 1857. Taking these into account, 3 major earthquakes have occured in the past 211
years.  This gives a periodicity risk for an approximate 7.8 major earthquake of  1 every 70 years (211 year record).
Of special note, the 3 major earthquakes occured within 39 years of each other (1857, 1892 and 1906) during an
increased PFM periodocity cycle. 

A total of 24 strong earthquake years during the 111 year period.

Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 8 earthquake      = 20.2 %   (110 year history)
Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake    = 10.2 %   (110 year history)
Average annual risk for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake    = 11.7 %   (110 year history)
Average risk for a 7.5 to 8.0                              =   1.5 %   (210 year history)
     
GWO Model Predictions

















































 






   
 

Forecast         MagnitudeRisk in Percent
Year

2021Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0= 10 %  risk
2021Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9=  5  %  risk
2021Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4=  5  %  risk
2021Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0=  2  %  risk


2022Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0= 10 %  risk
2022Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9=  5  %  risk
2022Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4=  5  %  risk
2022Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0=  2  %  risk


2023Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0= 40 %  risk
2023Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9= 35 %  risk
2023Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4= 20 %  risk
2023Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0= 10 %  risk
 
2024Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0= 90 %  risk
2024Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9= 30 %  risk
2024Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4= 35 %  risk
2024Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0= 40 %  risk

2025Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0= 40 %  risk
2025Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9= 35 %  risk
2025Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4= 10 %  risk
2025Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0= 10 %  risk

2026Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0= 10 %  risk
2026Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9=  5  %  risk
2026Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4=  5  %  risk
2026Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0=  2  %  risk

2027Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0= 10 % risk
2027Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9=  5 %  risk
2027Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4=  5 %  risk
2027Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0=  2 %  risk


Summary

Expectations from the GWO model predictions is for 1 or 2 earthquakes years with a magnitude of 6.4 or greater.
There is a moderate risk for a strong 7 to 7.4 quake, and an increasing moderate risk for a major 7.8 or greater
quake.  Note that the risk for a major quake is very much above the long-term average risk. Most likely year is
2024, and most likely time of year will be December 2013 into February 2024. 


                              Contact Global Weather Oscillations Inc.         Click Here

  "Natural Climate Pulse" released January 20, 2012
            Entering the most dangerous climate change in over 200-years
            ... see "Natural Climate Pulse" click here ...
Regional Earthquake Predictions    
  Public Service Forecast - Released April 24, 2012
    Next Major California Earthquake click here  
Figure 2 shows the GWO model forecast for specific magnitude ranges.  Column 1 (white bar) shows the forecast for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake. In column 2 risk the risk in percent for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake, and column 3 shows the risk forecast for a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 to 8.0.  In the year 2024 the risk for a major earthquake near 8.0  is actually higher than a strong 7 to 7.4 quake.
Figure 1. Shows a typical forecast for a region. The GWO risk forecast for region 3 is for the period 2021 through 2027. The graph depicts the GWO annual prediction risk in percent for an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 or greater in Region.  Notice the risk for a strong earthquake is only 10% in 2021 and 2022 (longterm mean is 10%), then rises sharply to a 40% risk in 2023 and 90% in 2024.
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