Hurricane Risk Forecasts
by GWO
Tropical Weather
GWO Earthquake Project
Global Weather Oscillations
El Niño - La Niña
Climate Change Speakers
Natural Climate Pulse
Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Hurricane Risk Predictions Earthquake Predictions
El Niño Predictions La Niña Predictions
Climate Change - Weather Cycles Predictions
Accurate Long-Range Predictions Extending out 4 years and Beyond
After 20 years of ongoing climate research and 40 years of meteorological
and climatological experience, findings from GWO's ongoing research is
now being presented to the public through symposiums, conferences, public
presentations, "Earth's Natural Climate Pulse" booklets which are a updated
condensed version of the climate change ebook, and the GWO web sites
GWO provides accurate long lange climate planning forecasts based on the "PFM" Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate "Milankovitch Cycles of the Lunisolar Precession". Research by meteorologists belonging to the American Meteorological Society (AMS), and David Dilley of GWO, have shown the PFM to be a powerful forcing mechanism that determines the meandering positons of the Atlantic and Pacific High Pressure centers from one year to the next, and in turn, regional weather/climate cycles. The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM), discovered and researched by GWO, is the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles. GWO’s model uses PFM analog years which are proven accurate in determining tropical cyclone landfall cycles. In 2010, the PFM model predicted a major impact storm in 2011 for Zone 1 (Long Island, NY and the southern New England coasts), a full 16 months in advance of the hurricane season.
GWO has implemented the Primary Forcing Mechanism-PFM into forecast models for regional hurricane
landfall forecasts, regional earthquake predictions, global warming-cooling forecasts, El Niño forecasts, and regional flood-drought forecasts. These models can provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2011 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).
Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), was formed in 1992 with the specific understanding that almost all climate and weather events occur in cycles, and it is the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) that produces and controls most climate oscillations. With this knowledge, GWO can forecast long-term and short-term cycles weather/climate cycles 1 to 10 years in advance. Global warming and cooling cycles can be forecast thousands of years in advance.
With this understanding, GWO has researched and developed the "Primary Forcing Mechanism" (PFM) that controls the long-term and short-term displacement of regional high pressure systems. It is these weather systems that control the general climate and weather patterns, and triggers cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in return triggers the El Niño, controls hurricane tracks, and many other climate weather cycles. Even Global Warming and Cooling.
David A. Dilley
President and Chief Research Scientist
Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.
Mr. Dilley is President and Founder of Global Weather Oscillations, Inc (GWO) .
He has 40 years of meteorological and climatological experience in:
· Preparing meteorological forecasts
· Development of cutting edge weather and climate cycle models for GWO
- Hurricane track forecasting 4-years in advance (most accurate long-range forecasts available)
Regional earthquake predictions
- El Niiño and La Niña forecasting
- Global cooling and warming cycles
- Climate cycle forecasting
- Presentations and Speaker appearances "Natural Climate Change"
- Researching natural forcing mechanisms that drive climate changes
At GWO, Mr. Dilley performs ongoing climate cycle research, develops specific climate cycle models for generation of climate/weather predictions years into the future. These forecasts include but are not limited to regional hurricane and tropical storm force wind probabilities, El Niño forecasts, regional earthquake predictions for strong earthquakes, specific regional historical weather events, such as recurring regional floods of historical nature, climate change research and predictions and outlooks.
Prior to forming GWO in 1992, Mr. Dilley began his weather career as a U.S. Air Force meteorologist. After leaving the Air Force with the rank of Captain, Mr. Dilley joined the National Weather Service (NWS). Duties as a senior forecaster included preparing marine forecasts, aviation forecasts, general public forecasts, issuing weather warnings, monitoring severe weather events, and continuing to develop his ideas concerning mechanisms that control climate cycles. Other duties and assignments included; Quality Control Officer overseeing five National Weather Service Offices, and quality controlling meteorological programs at two Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) pilot weather briefing centers, and the meteorologists at the Northeast Region FAA Control Center. Mr. Dilley was also Meteorologist in Charge at the Trenton New Jersey NWS office, and worked closely with area Emergency Management offices during severe weather events, such as hurricanes and their impacts on the region, and spring flooding potentials.
Mr. Dilley formally began researching climate cycles while attending graduate school at Rutgers University in 1978, with full time research beginning in 1991. By 1992 Mr. Dilley identified the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) that controls the approximate 3.5-year temperature cycles of sea surface temperatures in the tropical South Pacific Ocean. It quickly became apparent that the PFM forcing mechanism showed a near 100 percent correlation to the formation of El Niño’s in the central South Pacific.
In 1992 Mr. Dilley formed Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. with the clear understanding that most weather and climate we experience on earth are cyclical in nature, and driven by this “Natural PFM" cycles. Continuing research over the next decade uncovered very high correlations between the PFM to historical regional floods, regional snowfall trends, and other climate cycles. In 2005 to early 2006, the “regional hurricane landfall” model was developed, in early 2008 the model for global warming was made public, and then developed our first regional earthquake model in 2011.
EDUCATION
Meteorological - Climatological studies for M.S. in Meteorology
Rutgers University: Thesis “Possible Causes for Climate Cycles”.Meteorological Undergraduate studies for B.S. in Meteorology
Belknap College: (meteorology department has since transferred to Lyndon State College)MEMBERSHIPS
American Meteorological Society (AMS)
National Weather Association (NWA)
OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES and Noted Research
- Keynote Speaker for the annual convention of "the Society for Scientific Exploration" Boulder Colorado, June 2012.
- Author of the ebook "Earth's Natural Climate Pulse" (2012).
- Author of the ebook "Global Warming - Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found" 2008, (assisted by David Spiegler).
- "Gravitationally Induced Precipitation Oscillations", Manuscript 1995, author David Dilley.
- "On The Correlation of Lunar Syzygy Declinations and El Nino Events", Manuscript 2004, author David Dilley.
- Cutting edge research 1990 to present with the discovery of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate cycles.
- Extensive research 1991 to present formulating El Nino forecasts in relation to the PFM cycles.
- Cutting edge hurricane landfall forecast model based on the PFM cycles and analog years (2006)
- Cutting edge earthquake model in 2011.
- 1991-present, Cutting edge Climate Change research.
- Former co-host of weekly radio show – “Politically Incorrect Weather Guys”.
- Invited speaker for the NWA National Conference Oct. 2003, topic “Primary Trigger Mechanism that causes El Niño’s and other climate changes”.
- Invited speaker for the NWA National Conference Oct 2006, “the Primary Forcing Mechanism" that causes regional historical floods, regional hurricane landfall cycles, the El Niño and other weather cycles”.
- Invited speaker for the South East Coastal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium April 2007 “the Primary Forcing Mechanism" that causes regional historical floods, regional hurricane landfall cycles, the El Niño, global warming and other weather cycles”.
- Presentation on the "Primary Forcing Mechanism” that causes an El Niño and other weather cycles” to management and executives at AccuWeather headquarters, May 2006.
- Presentation to NOAA Climate Prediction Center 2007.
- Presentation to U.S. Representative to Congress Dennis Kucinich in 2006, on “Global Warming and El Niño cycles.”
- Presentation to U.S. Representative to Congress Cliff Stearns (Feb. 2012), on "Earth's Natural Climate Pulse".
Research paper on the "Primary Forcing Mechanism as Related to Causing El Niño" is under various peer reviews for publication. 
