The focus of GWO is on specialized "long range forecasts" for the El Nino, Climate Change, Global Warming and Cooling, hurricane landfall forecasts and cycles 1 to 15 years in advance, historical regional floods years in advance, regional extended droughts, and much more... Contact us with your problem, and we will forecast it.
What is the PFM?
The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) is the Trigger Mechanism that Controls Recurring Cycles of the El Niño, Regional Hurricane Landfalls and other Weather/Climate Cycles. The PFM is essentially a subset of the Lunisolar Precession, and well documented sub cycles of the Milankovitch Cycles.
El Niño events, global warming and other climate oscillations have been extensively studied for decades, but oceanographers and meteorologists have had great difficulty isolating the primary physical mechanism(s) that controls these oscillations.
By combining the four disciplines of Oceanography, Meteorology, Climatology and Astronomy, the objective of Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) 18-years of ongoing research was to isolate the Primary Forcing Trigger Mechanism(s) (PFM) that causes short-term climate cycles.
Once the PFM was isolated, it was then correlated with historical climate data to obtain accurate forecast models. One such research project correlates the PFM with sea surface temperatures in the tropical South Pacific Ocean where the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) forms. By doing so, GWO found a 100 percent correlation between the 24 PFM cycles to the occurrences of all 24 El Niño's dating back to 1914.
GWO also documented a near 100 percent correlation between PFM cycles to regional droughts, regional floods, regional hurricane landfalls and regional seasonal precipitation.
GWO has found that the “Primary Forcing trigger Mechanism (Dilley-PFM)” is the primary mechanism that controls many weather/climate cycles, and that by using the PFM as a forecast model, these weather cycles can be forecast years in advance.
GWO will be releasing to the public ground breaking global warming research around the end of February 2008.
See Global Warming, Hurricanes and the Bermuda High Link for more information.
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
- Track on going storms with these web sites
- Latest GWO Forecast for 2010
- Press Release for 2010 Season
- Information on the prior years GWO Hurricane Forecasts Model
- Information regarding available hurricane forecasts 4 years into the future
Track on going storms with these web sites
Lastest GWO Forecast for 2010
2010 GWO Hurricane Landfall Forecast Issued February
(public press and forecast release June 3, 2010)
Continental U.S. Coastline will see South Florida and the Upper Gulf in the 2010 Bulls Eye for Hurricane Landfalls... as well as the Northeastern Mexico Coast.
Released to Clients in February 2010
Hurricane Forecast from Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
South Florida, upper Gulf and northeastern Mexico to near Corpus Christi in South Texas red flagged for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions in 2010....areas close to the red flagged areas yellow flagged
Chief climate forecaster David Dilley in Ocala Florida, says the 2010 season will be an about face from 2009 which saw the development of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by the El Niño. No hurricanes affected the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States in 2009.
Dilley says "The stage is set for a much more active hurricane season in 2010", with GWO red flagging extreme south Florida from near Miami and Naples - southward through the Keys. This area has a risk for multiple landfalls and a major category 3 or greater hurricane. GWO's hurricane model is tracking 5 similar climate cycles that have occurred during the past 100 years, with 4 of 5 cycles producing major hurricanes in the Keys or extreme south Florida.
A second area red flagged by GWO is the upper Gulf States from Central Louisiana eastward into the western Panhandle of Florida. A third red flagged area is northeastern Mexico into South Texas near Corpus Christi. This area is also at risk for a major hurricane. Other hurricanes and tropical storms will track around the Bermuda high with some skirting eastern North Carolina before heading out to sea, and across the Gulf into northern Mexico. Additional information is available on GWO's hurricane web site www.hurricaneriskpredictions.com
The stage is set this summer; the tropical Atlantic Ocean is warmer than normal, the El Niño is gone, and the upper atmosphere wind shear that suppressed development of storms last year is already noticeably less. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High Pressure Center that changes position and strength from one season to the next, is now settling into its location for this summer, which will influence the ultimate path of storms during the season.
GWO’s prediction model is based on a concept of climate cycles, with these cycles built around a Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) that ultimately controls these climate cycles. The PFM plays a significant role in controlling the position of the Bermuda High pressure center from one year to the next.
GWO is in its fifth year of issuing landfall forecasts for hurricane and tropical storms for 11 coastal zones along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. GWO clients receive proven accurate yearly forecasts with outlooks for an additional 3 years. Prior to the 2008 season, Dilley red flagged western Louisiana and Texas, and there were 5 hurricane and tropical storm landfalls in that region. A full year prior to the 2009 hurricane season, Dilley predicted an El Niño would drastically suppress the hurricane activity during the 2009 season, and that there would be no hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coast. In 2009 there were no hurricane landfalls.
David Dilley is a meteorologist, climate researcher and forecaster with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) in Ocala Florida. Additional information on the El Niño, Global Warming and Carbon Dioxide cycles, and hurricanes is available at http://www.globalweathercycles.com.
Information on the prior years GWO Hurricane Forecasts Model
Proven Hurricane Risk Strategies
for Insurance Companies and Industries - September 2009
Offered by: Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), Ocala, FL
GWO's 2009 hurricane, tropical storm and El Niño long-range forecasts issued during the spring of 2008 (16 months prior to the 2009 hurricane season) were right on the mark this year, and it is now time to begin planning for the 2010 through 2013 hurricane seasons. We invite you and your risk management staff to review this electronic bulletin to determine whether having a reliable hurricane risk probability forecast can be of value to your company.
There is a high benefit/cost ratio to be had for your company when you use our unique hurricane and tropical storm risk predictions. Millions of dollars can be saved/earned for your company through reduced losses and/or increased profits by taking appropriate actions for your industry operations. Knowing the risk probabilities for hurricane and tropical storm force winds for specific zones on the U.S. east and Gulf coasts – far in advance of the hurricane season – can be an immense value to your company.
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) has 19 years of long range climate cycle experience and research. The verification results of the past 3 years (2006-2008) have confirmed that the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) discovered by GWO founder David Dilley, has led to accurate forecasting of risk probabilities for hurricane and tropical storm landfalls in the coastal areas from New England to Texas.
While other organizations only make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of major hurricanes, GWO’s technique gives accurate predictions of landfall risks up to 4 years in advance within specified forecast zones along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. from New England south to Florida and from Florida west to the Texas-Mexico border, Of special note is the PFM’s capability to predict the average location of the semi-permanent High Pressure system in the Western Atlantic, known as the “Bermuda High”. The clockwise circulation around the Bermuda High greatly influences the paths of tropical cyclones and where their potential landfalls may be expected.
The GWO risk probability forecast is for 11 U. S. coastal zones, with a specific forecast for each zone, because the PFM data and climate cycles differ for each zone. For the 2008 hurricane season (see graph Page 3), GWO’s prediction for zone 10, which includes most of Texas and Western Louisiana, was tagged as a “High Risk Zone” for tropical cyclone landfalls. This zone was impacted by two category 2 hurricanes (Gustav and Ike) and a strong tropical storm (Eduardo). Hurricane Ike turned out to be the third costliest hurricane to strike the U.S.; damage estimates are over 25 billion dollars! GWO’s forecast was right on target. Using the unique PFM prediction method, GWO is able to create outlooks of risk probabilities that have predictive skill, for several years in the future.
About Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
David A Dilley, a former National Weather Service Meteorologist, founded Global Weather Oscillations, Inc., in 1991. He is a Research Meteorologist who has done extensive research on hurricane tracks and cycles related to the PFM and has a M.S. Degree in Meteorology from Rutgers University.
David B. Spiegler is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) who has developed, under contract with U.S. Government agencies, several analysis and prediction techniques that have been used, and are used, operationally. He has a M.S. Degree in Meteorology from New York University.
Thomas McGuire, National Weather Service (Ret.), is a senior consultant to GWO, and was the National Weather Service Area Manager for Southern New England. He has a B. A. Degree in Meteorology from New York University.
Benefits of GWO Risk Probabilities for Hurricane
Allows for important business planning for your industry, which is strongly affected by tropical cyclone strikes.
Important information for enhancing your company’s strategy to expand or reduce coverage in new or existing coastal areas.
GWO’s Hurricane Landfall Risk Probability predictions give a detailed forecast for each of eleven zones for the probability of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), and separate probability forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms. An outlook for the following 3 years is also given with each one year forecast. The current year forecast and 3 year outlook can provide valuable information for strategic planning.
Recommended Actions You Can Take Now
If the information you’ve read in this GWO electronic bulletin is of interest to your company, GWO would be pleased to visit your corporate headquarters and do a presentation for you and your invited staff. The data you will view are unique and based on solid science. There is no other current long range cycle prediction technique that can produce the proven accurate results of the Primary Forcing Mechanism pioneered by David Dilley.
To arrange a presentation, or for further information, contact one of the following meteorologists below, based on your company’s location:
David Dilley, Ocala, FL (352)732-8170, e-mail: dilleygwo@aol.com
Any area from New England to Texas.
David Spiegler, Delray Beach, FL (561)498-3795, e-mail dbswx.impact@yahoo.com
Southeast FL, southern New England
Thomas McGuire, Venice, FL (941) 408-1995, e-mail: tmcguire978@hotmail.com
Southwest FL
After evaluating GWO’s presentation for the benefits it can provide to your company, we would like to provide you with a formal written proposal. If the proposal is accepted, and a contract/Purchase Order is received by GWO, a Handbook will be provided by GWO to your company for tropical cyclone, hurricane, and tropical storm risk probabilities for the 2009 season for 11 coastal zones. A detailed 3-year outlook for each zone for 2010-2012, will be available July 15, 2009. We believe GWO’s proven track record for the risk probability predictions will be of significant value to your company for current and future strategic business planning.
If you act now, there is still time to get the edge on hurricane and tropical storm activity in your company’s areas of concern for 2009.
Figure 1. 2008 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Tracks and the GWO Forecast
GWO Hurricane Risk Predictive Skill for the 2008 season
In Figure 1, the red boxes along the coasts of Texas, Florida and New England indicated the GWO High risk forecast for 2008. Yellow boxed areas indicated the Moderate risk forecast areas for tropical cyclones, as issued by GWO.
Figure 2. GWO Forecast and the Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Tracks 2007 & 2006
In Figure 2, the red boxes indicate areas of high risk probabilities forecast by GWO in 2006 and 2007, the yellow boxed areas indicate the Moderate risk areas for tropical cyclones.
Global Weather Oscillations Incorporated prepares tropical storm and hurricane risk forecasts for 11 United States zones stretching from New England to northern Mexico. The graphic below illustrates these 11 zones.
Example Zone Forecast
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Prediction Zone Issued by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Zone 15 - Shell Inlet to Big River Inlet
Forecast 2009 and Outlook to 2012
Climatology based on 100 years of either tropical storm or hurricane conditions somewhere within the zone. Tropical cyclone yearly frequency (either a hurricane or tropical storm that year) for this zone is very high at 52%. The Hurricane frequency is 29% for this zone, which means in a 10 year period about 3 years with hurricane conditions can be expected somewhere within the zone. However, the frequencies are cyclical with some very active 5 to 10 year periods, and some very inactive 5 to 10 year periods (these cycles are recognized and forecast by GWO.
Total of 52 active tropical cyclone (hurricane and/or tropical storm years).
Forecast - 2009
Outlook 2010 through 2012
Zone Summary
This zone is entering a active cycle centered on 2010. During the 4 year period at least 1 hurricane year can be expected, and 1 to 3 tropical storms.
Discussion
It is the cycles of the "P F M" that controls the position of the Bermuda High Pressure Center, and the path of hurricanes (PFM and hurricane tracks). 2007 has favorable conditions for hurricanes to form and/or enter the Gulf of Mexico, then move east toward the Florida Gulf Coast, and northwest toward the upper Texas coast. Circulation around the Bermuda High Pressure Center will also favor movement of hurricanes toward the northeastern U.S. coast.
See this link (Bermuda High) for a more detailed description of the PFM and how it changes hurricane tracks from one season to the next.
Specialized Landfall Forecasts for 1 to 10 years in advance are available through Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.
El Niño
Updated July 8, 2010
As forecast by GWO back in February, the El Niño ended before summer and is now passing through neutral conditions to a weak La Niña
The El Niño which in Spanish means “little boy” and refers to “Christ Child”, forms approximately every 3 to 4 years in the tropical South Pacific Ocean.
It is a pool of very warm ocean water that suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns .
Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009, and disrupt the 2009 hurricane season. The El Niño caused strong high level changes in the atmosphere which essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
Mr. Dilley and GWO uses a recurring gravitational cycle of the moon called the “Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate” for these predictions. The PFM is a sub cycle of the Lunisolar Precession and acts like a magnet pulling and displacing the South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.
During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the Western Pacific near Australia. Then as the PFM gravitational cycle pulls the tropical high pressure system from its normal location, the easterly trade winds suddenly shift direction to westerly.
This shift allows the very warm pool of water near Australia to move east toward South America as an El Niño. As it moves east it disrupts normal atmospheric weather patterns around the world, causing some areas to have stronger than normal storms, and some areas less stormy weather. It also causes changes in ocean currents and temperatures, thus disrupting commercial fishing.
Figure 1 shows the Central Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (solid blue line) since 2003, the peaks indicate an El Niño. The red dashed line is the Primary Forcing Mechanism PFM. Notice how the Peaks in Ocean temperatures correspond to the peaks in the PFM cycle (dashed red). The PFM peaked in early 2009 followed by a peak in the ocean temperatures. A second large peak in June 2009 ushered in the El Nino. Notice the sharp decline in the PFM cycle beginning in March 2010. As forecast by GWO in February, the Central Tropical South Pacific ocean waters responded to the diminishing PFM with cooling of the ocean from May through June,. The El Niño ended in May and will enter a weak La Niña during July-August.
Update GWO Prediction .. continued
The GWO Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) noted as the red dashed line in the graph above indicates a dramatic downward trend in the PFM cycle from March into June 2010. The ocean waters responded to the PFM trend, thus as forecast by GWO, the ocean temperatures cooled dramatically during May and June, with the in May 2010. This cooling of the South Pacific tropical ocean waters will continue through September of 2010 with the El Nino entering neutral conditions.
The Ocean water temperatures historically peak approximately every 4 years. Because the tropical central South Pacific Ocean was experiencing a strong La Niña during the late fall of 2008, the El Niño took a little longer than normal to form. The first Peak of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate change and an El Niño occurred in January 2009, thus initiating the end of the La Niña., and the beginning of warming in the equatorial South Pacific Ocean waters . A second PFM peak right at the tail end of the PFM cycle occurred in June 2009, with this peak in the PFM ushering in the El Niño this past summer in the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere winter).
The tropical South Pacific Ocean and atmospheric winds responded rapidly to the secondary PFM peak in June, with this causing a strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere summer, fall, and into late winter and spring of 2010. (Southern Hemisphere Fall). As the PFM cycle decreases rapidly during March to May 2010, the El Nino began weakening in March and ended in May, with neutral conditions setting in during June just in time for the hurricane and tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere. The neutral conditions will likely enter a weak La Nina by July-August.
The technology used in forecasting the upcoming El Niño is the same used for predicting the natural cycles of global warming and cooling. PFM gravitational cycles pull the atmosphere’s high pressure systems northward or southward by as much as 3 or 5 degrees of latitude from their normal seasonal positions.
These cycles correspond nearly 100 percent with the prior 24 moderate El Niño occurrences since 1914, and with global warming cycles that recur approximate every 230 years, and mega global warming cycles that occur every 116,000 years. Additional information on the El Niño and the peer reviewed computer e-Book “Global Warming – Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found” is available as a free download at http://www.globalweathercycles.com.
PFM El Niño forecasts are available on request for 1 to 10 years in advance.
Prepare now for the next strong El Niño
Climate Change - Global Warming, Global Cooling Cycles
Press Release - July 8, 2008 - New Research
Find out when "Natural" Global Warming is ending, and cooling will Begin". Click HERE to read GWO's e-Book for a limited time -- FREE!
After 18 years of ongoing climate research, and 40 years of meteorological and climatological experience, research conducted by David Dilley and Global weather Oscillations Inc. is currently available, and will be presented to the public and other researchers through this web page by clicking here, Radio Ear Network broadcasts, symposiums, conferences, and presentations.
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. is now implementing the Primary Forcing Mechanism PFM for climate/weather cycles into forecast models. This new model and the global warming-cooling forecast will be presented be on this web page in late February 2008.
This is a don't miss, "all new technology that will blow the lid off the made global warming hypothesis".
A glimpse of what to expect is described below. The full manuscript will provide an in depth discussion describing the Primary Forcing Mechanism and how it relates 100% to Global Warming. And there will be a detailed forecast for 2008 and beyond.
Will have 23 pages of research tailored for both the science world, and for the lay person. All peer reviewed and ready to be further peer reviewed by the "world".
The Cause for Global Warming and Cooling
When will Global cooling begin?
Find out on or about February 27, 2008
You can listen to David Dilley co-hosting a weekly discussion on Natural Global Warming, weather and the climate on the Internet IP Radio Ear Network on Thursdays at 1 PM (Scheduled to Premiere February 28, 2008.
Peer Reviewed Research
It is commonly accepted within the political environment and some reaches of the scientific world, that the current global warming cycle is caused almost entirely by the earth’s atmospheric absorption of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, and that this greenhouse gas is introduced into the atmosphere almost entirely by the industrial emissions of carbon dioxide, and fossil fuel burning by humans.
Of deep concern is this accepted hypothesis that carbon dioxide is the cause for this so called “run-away” global warming! The truth is, atmospheric temperatures actually cooled across the United States during a 45 year period from about 1940 to 1985, and this was during a period in which carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere steadily raised. If carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming, how can temperatures possibly fall during this 45 year period as carbon dioxide rose? We may ask, what is wrong with this picture? And this hypothesis!
Mr. Dilley’s research demonstrates that global warming cycles actually occur on a regular basis, with up to 30 global warming cycles during the past 5,000 years alone, and nearly 2,500 occurrences during the past 460,000 years. Mr. Dilley’s research also demonstrates a natural cycle that causes atmospheric temperatures to rise during these cycles, with this rise closely followed by a rise in carbon dioxide concentrations. In other words, temperatures rise first, and then carbon dioxide levels rise in response to a natural feedback system connected to the temperature cycles.
Research presented in this manuscript clearly demonstrates that earth is now at the optimum peak of 5 natural and very distinct global warming cycles, and this is why earth is experiencing the warmest temperatures in nearly 450,000 years. And now the good news; the currently accepted cause and expected duration of global warming are inaccurate. Mr. Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc (GWO), has uncovered a very powerful external forcing mechanism that causes shifts in regional weather cycles, regional high pressure systems, and the world’s climate. This forcing mechanism is called “the Primary Forcing Mechanism”, and is caused by very specific gravitational cycles of the moon. The research has found a near 100 percent correlation between the Primary Forcing Mechanism “PFM” cycles and all global warming and cooling cycles, and presents evidence that this is why the earth is at its warmest level in nearly 450,000 years.
And there is even more good news: All global warming and cooling cycles naturally begin and end, right on time, regardless of what humans are doing here on earth, and this current global warming cycle is about to end.
4423 Southeast 14th Street, Ocala, FL 34471
| Tropical Cyclone years | 52% | frequency risk |
| Tropical Storm ONLY years | 21% | frequency risk |
| Hurricane ONLY years | 29% | frequency risk |
| Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 30% | risk |
| Tropical Storm ONLY | 10% | risk |
| Hurricane ONLY | 30% | risk |
| 2010 | Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 80% | risk |
| 2010 | Tropical Storm ONLY | 20% | risk |
| 2010 | Hurricane ONLY | 60% | risk |
| 2011 | Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 30% | risk |
| 2011 | Tropical Storm ONLY | 20% | risk |
| 2011 | Hurricane ONLY | <20% | risk |
| 2012 | Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 30% | risk |
| 2012 | Tropical Storm ONLY | <20% | risk |
| 2012 | Hurricane ONLY | <20% | risk |
Tropical Weather
Climate Change
GWO Hurricane Forecasts
Global Weather Oscillations
