Lastest GWO Forecast for 2010
2010 GWO Hurricane Landfall Forecast Issued February
(public press and forecast release June 3, 2010)
Continental U.S. Coastline will see South Florida and the Upper Gulf in the 2010 Bulls Eye for Hurricane Landfalls... as well as the Northeastern Mexico Coast.
Released to Clients in February 2010
Hurricane Forecast from Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
South Florida, upper Gulf and northeastern Mexico to near Corpus Christi in South Texas red flagged for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions in 2010....areas close to the red flagged areas yellow flagged
Chief climate forecaster David Dilley in Ocala Florida, says the 2010 season will be an about face from 2009 which saw the development of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by the El Niño. No hurricanes affected the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States in 2009.
Dilley says "The stage is set for a much more active hurricane season in 2010", with GWO red flagging extreme south Florida from near Miami and Naples - southward through the Keys. This area has a risk for multiple landfalls and a major category 3 or greater hurricane. GWO's hurricane model is tracking 5 similar climate cycles that have occurred during the past 100 years, with 4 of 5 cycles producing major hurricanes in the Keys or extreme south Florida.
A second area red flagged by GWO is the upper Gulf States from Central Louisiana eastward into the western Panhandle of Florida. A third red flagged area is northeastern Mexico into South Texas near Corpus Christi. This area is also at risk for a major hurricane. Other hurricanes and tropical storms will track around the Bermuda high with some skirting eastern North Carolina before heading out to sea, and across the Gulf into northern Mexico. Additional information is available on GWO's hurricane web site www.hurricaneriskpredictions.com
The stage is set this summer; the tropical Atlantic Ocean is warmer than normal, the El Niño is gone, and the upper atmosphere wind shear that suppressed development of storms last year is already noticeably less. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High Pressure Center that changes position and strength from one season to the next, is now settling into its location for this summer, which will influence the ultimate path of storms during the season.
GWO’s prediction model is based on a concept of climate cycles, with these cycles built around a Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) that ultimately controls these climate cycles. The PFM plays a significant role in controlling the position of the Bermuda High pressure center from one year to the next.
GWO is in its fifth year of issuing landfall forecasts for hurricane and tropical storms for 11 coastal zones along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. GWO clients receive proven accurate yearly forecasts with outlooks for an additional 3 years. Prior to the 2008 season, Dilley red flagged western Louisiana and Texas, and there were 5 hurricane and tropical storm landfalls in that region. A full year prior to the 2009 hurricane season, Dilley predicted an El Niño would drastically suppress the hurricane activity during the 2009 season, and that there would be no hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coast. In 2009 there were no hurricane landfalls.
David Dilley is a meteorologist, climate researcher and forecaster with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) in Ocala Florida. Additional information on the El Niño, Global Warming and Carbon Dioxide cycles, and hurricanes is available at http://www.globalweathercycles.com.
Information on the prior years GWO Hurricane Forecasts Model
Proven Hurricane Risk Strategies
for Insurance Companies and Industries - September 2009
Offered by: Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), Ocala, FL
GWO's 2009 hurricane, tropical storm and El Niño long-range forecasts issued during the spring of 2008 (16 months prior to the 2009 hurricane season) were right on the mark this year, and it is now time to begin planning for the 2010 through 2013 hurricane seasons. We invite you and your risk management staff to review this electronic bulletin to determine whether having a reliable hurricane risk probability forecast can be of value to your company.
There is a high benefit/cost ratio to be had for your company when you use our unique hurricane and tropical storm risk predictions. Millions of dollars can be saved/earned for your company through reduced losses and/or increased profits by taking appropriate actions for your industry operations. Knowing the risk probabilities for hurricane and tropical storm force winds for specific zones on the U.S. east and Gulf coasts – far in advance of the hurricane season – can be an immense value to your company.
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) has 19 years of long range climate cycle experience and research. The verification results of the past 3 years (2006-2008) have confirmed that the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) discovered by GWO founder David Dilley, has led to accurate forecasting of risk probabilities for hurricane and tropical storm landfalls in the coastal areas from New England to Texas.
While other organizations only make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of major hurricanes, GWO’s technique gives accurate predictions of landfall risks up to 4 years in advance within specified forecast zones along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. from New England south to Florida and from Florida west to the Texas-Mexico border, Of special note is the PFM’s capability to predict the average location of the semi-permanent High Pressure system in the Western Atlantic, known as the “Bermuda High”. The clockwise circulation around the Bermuda High greatly influences the paths of tropical cyclones and where their potential landfalls may be expected.
The GWO risk probability forecast is for 11 U. S. coastal zones, with a specific forecast for each zone, because the PFM data and climate cycles differ for each zone. For the 2008 hurricane season (see graph Page 3), GWO’s prediction for zone 10, which includes most of Texas and Western Louisiana, was tagged as a “High Risk Zone” for tropical cyclone landfalls. This zone was impacted by two category 2 hurricanes (Gustav and Ike) and a strong tropical storm (Eduardo). Hurricane Ike turned out to be the third costliest hurricane to strike the U.S.; damage estimates are over 25 billion dollars! GWO’s forecast was right on target. Using the unique PFM prediction method, GWO is able to create outlooks of risk probabilities that have predictive skill, for several years in the future.
About Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
David A Dilley, a former National Weather Service Meteorologist, founded Global Weather Oscillations, Inc., in 1991. He is a Research Meteorologist who has done extensive research on hurricane tracks and cycles related to the PFM and has a M.S. Degree in Meteorology from Rutgers University.
David B. Spiegler is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) who has developed, under contract with U.S. Government agencies, several analysis and prediction techniques that have been used, and are used, operationally. He has a M.S. Degree in Meteorology from New York University.
Thomas McGuire, National Weather Service (Ret.), is a senior consultant to GWO, and was the National Weather Service Area Manager for Southern New England. He has a B. A. Degree in Meteorology from New York University.
Benefits of GWO Risk Probabilities for Hurricane
Allows for important business planning for your industry, which is strongly affected by tropical cyclone strikes.
Important information for enhancing your company’s strategy to expand or reduce coverage in new or existing coastal areas.
GWO’s Hurricane Landfall Risk Probability predictions give a detailed forecast for each of eleven zones for the probability of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), and separate probability forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms. An outlook for the following 3 years is also given with each one year forecast. The current year forecast and 3 year outlook can provide valuable information for strategic planning.
Recommended Actions You Can Take Now
If the information you’ve read in this GWO electronic bulletin is of interest to your company, GWO would be pleased to visit your corporate headquarters and do a presentation for you and your invited staff. The data you will view are unique and based on solid science. There is no other current long range cycle prediction technique that can produce the proven accurate results of the Primary Forcing Mechanism pioneered by David Dilley.
To arrange a presentation, or for further information, contact one of the following meteorologists below, based on your company’s location:
David Dilley, Ocala, FL (352)732-8170, e-mail: dilleygwo@aol.com
Any area from New England to Texas.
David Spiegler, Delray Beach, FL (561)498-3795, e-mail dbswx.impact@yahoo.com
Southeast FL, southern New England
Thomas McGuire, Venice, FL (941) 408-1995, e-mail: tmcguire978@hotmail.com
Southwest FL
After evaluating GWO’s presentation for the benefits it can provide to your company, we would like to provide you with a formal written proposal. If the proposal is accepted, and a contract/Purchase Order is received by GWO, a Handbook will be provided by GWO to your company for tropical cyclone, hurricane, and tropical storm risk probabilities for the 2009 season for 11 coastal zones. A detailed 3-year outlook for each zone for 2010-2012, will be available July 15, 2009. We believe GWO’s proven track record for the risk probability predictions will be of significant value to your company for current and future strategic business planning.
If you act now, there is still time to get the edge on hurricane and tropical storm activity in your company’s areas of concern for 2009.
Figure 1. 2008 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Tracks and the GWO Forecast
GWO Hurricane Risk Predictive Skill for the 2008 season
In Figure 1, the red boxes along the coasts of Texas, Florida and New England indicated the GWO High risk forecast for 2008. Yellow boxed areas indicated the Moderate risk forecast areas for tropical cyclones, as issued by GWO.
Figure 2. GWO Forecast and the Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Tracks 2007 & 2006
In Figure 2, the red boxes indicate areas of high risk probabilities forecast by GWO in 2006 and 2007, the yellow boxed areas indicate the Moderate risk areas for tropical cyclones.
Global Weather Oscillations Incorporated prepares tropical storm and hurricane risk forecasts for 11 United States zones stretching from New England to northern Mexico. The graphic below illustrates these 11 zones.
Example Zone Forecast
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Prediction Zone Issued by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Zone 15 - Shell Inlet to Big River Inlet
Forecast 2009 and Outlook to 2012
Climatology based on 100 years of either tropical storm or hurricane conditions somewhere within the zone. Tropical cyclone yearly frequency (either a hurricane or tropical storm that year) for this zone is very high at 52%. The Hurricane frequency is 29% for this zone, which means in a 10 year period about 3 years with hurricane conditions can be expected somewhere within the zone. However, the frequencies are cyclical with some very active 5 to 10 year periods, and some very inactive 5 to 10 year periods (these cycles are recognized and forecast by GWO.
Total of 52 active tropical cyclone (hurricane and/or tropical storm years).
Forecast - 2009
Outlook 2010 through 2012
Zone Summary
This zone is entering a active cycle centered on 2010. During the 4 year period at least 1 hurricane year can be expected, and 1 to 3 tropical storms.
Discussion
It is the cycles of the "P F M" that controls the position of the Bermuda High Pressure Center, and the path of hurricanes (PFM and hurricane tracks). 2007 has favorable conditions for hurricanes to form and/or enter the Gulf of Mexico, then move east toward the Florida Gulf Coast, and northwest toward the upper Texas coast. Circulation around the Bermuda High Pressure Center will also favor movement of hurricanes toward the northeastern U.S. coast.
See this link (Bermuda High) for a more detailed description of the PFM and how it changes hurricane tracks from one season to the next.
Specialized Landfall Forecasts for 1 to 10 years in advance are available through Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.
4423 Southeast 14th Street, Ocala, FL 34471
| Tropical Cyclone years | 52% | frequency risk |
| Tropical Storm ONLY years | 21% | frequency risk |
| Hurricane ONLY years | 29% | frequency risk |
| Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 30% | risk |
| Tropical Storm ONLY | 10% | risk |
| Hurricane ONLY | 30% | risk |
| 2010 | Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 80% | risk |
| 2010 | Tropical Storm ONLY | 20% | risk |
| 2010 | Hurricane ONLY | 60% | risk |
| 2011 | Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 30% | risk |
| 2011 | Tropical Storm ONLY | 20% | risk |
| 2011 | Hurricane ONLY | <20% | risk |
| 2012 | Tropical Cyclone (Hurricane/Tropical Storm | 30% | risk |
| 2012 | Tropical Storm ONLY | <20% | risk |
| 2012 | Hurricane ONLY | <20% | risk |
Global Weather Oscillations
GWO Hurricane Forecasts
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