Hurricane Risk Forecasts
by GWO
Tropical Weather
GWO Earthquake Project
Global Weather Oscillations
El Niño - La Niña
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Methodology:
What is the PFM?
Additional information can be found the the Earthquake Dynamics section of this web site.
The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) is the Trigger Mechanism that Controls Recurring Cycles of the El Niño, Regional Hurricane Landfalls and other Weather/Climate Cycles. The PFM is essentially a subset of the Lunisolar Precession and strong variations in the moon's gravitational field on earth, variations in the electromagnetic field, and the well documented sub cycles of the Milankovitch Cycles.
El Niño events, global warming and other climate oscillations have been extensively studied for decades, but oceanographers and meteorologists have had great difficulty isolating the primary physical mechanism(s) that controls these oscillations.
By combining the five disciplines of Oceanography, Meteorology, Climatology, Astronomy and Geology, the objective of Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) 18-years of ongoing research was to isolate the Primary Forcing Trigger Mechanism(s) (PFM) that causes short-term climate cycles.
Once the PFM was isolated, it was then correlated with historical climate data to obtain accurate forecast models. One such research project correlates the PFM with sea surface temperatures in the tropical South Pacific Ocean where the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) forms. By doing so, GWO found a near 100 percent correlation between the 24 PFM cycles to the occurrences of all 24 El Niño's dating back to 1914.
GWO also documented a near 100 percent correlation between PFM cycles to regional droughts, regional floods, regional hurricane landfalls regional seasonal precipitation and strong regional earthquakes.
GWO has found that the 'Primary Forcing trigger Mechanism (Dilley-PFM)' is the primary mechanism that controls many weather/climate cycles, and that by using the PFM as a forecast model, these weather cycles can be forecast years in advance.
Hurricane and El Niño Forecasting:
Short-term climate oscillations have been extensively studied for decades, but meteorologists and oceanographers have had very limited success in isolating the primary physical mechanism(s) that creates and controls the oscillations. GWO’s nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the development of prediction models that have proved to be accurate.
An example of a GWO research project is one that correlates the PFM with sea surface temperatures in the tropical South Pacific Ocean where the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) forms. GWO found a near 100 percent correlation between the 24 PFM cycles and the occurrences of all 24 El Niño's dating back to 1914. For the purpose of the proposed program, GWO has documented a very high correlation between PFM and recurring cycles of regional hurricane landfalls. Approximate 1.85-year, 4-year, and PFM 18.5 year cycles and the PFM 92.5 year cycle that is used to develop the hurricane risk probabilities
for each of the 11 zones.
Thus, the primary basis for the hurricane risk probability predictions is from the analysis of historical regional hurricane landfalls as correlated to the associated historical cycles of the PFM. GWO research has shown that the PFM is a significant controlling factor in the paths of hurricanes. It is known that there are multiple factors involved in tropical hurricane formation and movement. So, while the main basis for the predictions GWO will provide for hurricane risk probability will be the PFM, other known factors will be taken into account and studied by the GWO team during the course of the program to insure up-to-date information is given.
To re-emphasize the uniqueness and value of our hurricane risk probability predictions to you:
We have developed a UNIQUE hurricane risk probability prediction technique for eleven (11) specific coastal zones from Florida west to Texas and north to New England. While other organizations and forecasters only make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, they DO NOT include any information on the likelihood of a storm or hurricane striking a specific coastal zone. WE DO exactly that with our unique technique that gives accurate predictions of hurricane risks up to 4 years in advance for each of the 11 coastal zones on the east coast and Gulf coast of the U.S.
Earthquakes and Climate Change
Ever since the planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, interaction of these processes have implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm. These rhythms include but are not limited to; day and night, the four annual seasons and weather events during the particular season, short-term climate fluctuations and oscillations within the seasons, and long-term climate change cycles such as glacial periods which occur approximately every 120 thousand years.
There is also a rhythm of the planet which most of us are not aware of, but do occasionally feel or see. Hundreds of earthquakes occur daily around the world, and thousands during the course of a year. Only a small fraction of these occurrences ever make the news.
Earth is very complex. On the surface there is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet. The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms which cause and/or maintain a rhythm of the weather patterns and short-term climate changes.
Beneath the atmosphere is the planet earth which consists of 32% iron, 30% oxygen, 15% silicon, 14% magnesium, 3% sulfur, 2% nickel, calcium, aluminum and various trace elements. The first layer of earth beneath the atmosphere is the crust, oceans and fresh water lakes. The crust is a thin layer with a depth ranging from 5 and 75 kilometers. Beneath the layer of crust is the mantle which can go down to a depth of 2890 kilometers. This is the largest layer of earth and is comprised mostly of silicate rocks rich in magnesium and iron. Beneath the mantle is the outer core comprised of mostly liquid iron. Then in the center of the earth is the solid inner core which is also mostly iron.
Because the Earth’s mantle is solid and very thick with depths going down to 2890 kilometers, we would expect a very firm foundation under our feet. Scientists indicate that this outer layer of the earth is actually relatively thin, and very brittle. However, the mantle floats on the liquid outer core of hot molten iron. Slow movement of the liquid core inside the earth causes stress on the brittle outer mantle, with the end result causing rocks to occasionally break suddenly. This brittle outer layer of earth is also fragmented into a number of pieces which are called plates. Earthquakes occur where plates rub against other, spread, or where one plate slides under another plate during these movements.
Volcanoes occur in areas where the mantle breaks through the crust and allow some of the liquid outer core to reach earth’s surface. And according to the USGS, “an earthquake is the shaking of the ground caused by an abrupt shift of rock along a fracture in the Earth, called a fault. Within seconds, an earthquake releases stress that has slowly accumulated within the rock, sometimes for hundreds of years”.
As described earlier, over the course of millions of years Earth has acquired a natural rhythm in its atmosphere and oceans above the earth's crust, and research by Global Weather Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), has found a similar rhythm for earthquake frequencies. Remember, the earth's atmosphere is comprised of fluid gases that are easily subjected to outside forces. The earth's mantle floats on a liquid core. which being a fluid liquid comprised mainly of iron, is easily subjected to outside forces such as oscillations in strong geomagnetic gravity forces. Oscillations of gravitational forces are caused by varying positions and distances from earth of the sun, moon and other planets within the solar system. It is these forces which are the "primary forcing mechanism" controlling the rhythm of earthquakes and the climate on earth..
Research by GWO has found that the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)" is the Trigger Mechanism that Controls Recurring Cycles of the El Niño, Regional Hurricane Landfalls, other Weather/Climate Cycles, and earthquakes. The PFM is essentially a subset of the Lunisolar Precession, and well documented sub cycles of the Milankovitch Cycles.
Sub cycles of the Lunisolar Precession portray gravitational tidal forces on earth which can vary by about 47 percent during the course of only a few months. It has been documented by research scientists that these cycles cause bulges in the earth's oceans, atmosphere, and the inner and outer core of the earth. Oscillations within these magnetic cycles thusly cause changes in the mostly iron liquid core of earth, and in turn the flow changes and pressure changes within the liquid core causes great stress on the brittle mantle.
Additional information can be found the the Earthquake Dynamics section of this web site.
Accurate Hurricane Risk Prediction Service
by Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.
Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Hurricane Risk Predictions Earthquake Predictions
El Niño Predictions La Niña Predictions
Climate Change - Weather Cycles Predictions
Accurate Long-Range Predictions Extending out 4 years and Beyond
