Hurricane Risk Forecasts
by GWO
Tropical Weather
GWO Earthquake Project
Global Weather Oscillations
El Niño - La Niña
Climate Change Speakers
Natural Climate Pulse
Example Zone Forecast (please note this is an example only)
Example:
Zone 15 - Shell Inlet to Big River Inlet
Forecast 2015 and Outlook for 2016 through 2018
Climatology
Based on 100 years of record (1909-2008) for either hurricane conditions occurring somewhere within the zone during a year, or if no hurricane, a year with tropical storm conditions occurring somewhere within the zone.
A total of 57 years had a tropical cyclone (hurricane or tropical storm) occur in this forecast zone. Climatologically, the average is for close to 3 hurricanes and 3 tropical storms during a 10 year period. But the averages can be misleading in that the PFM cycles define some 10 year periods as being quite active, and other 4 to 8 year periods as being very inactive. GWO's PFM model identifies these cycles and incorporates the data into preparation of the risk probability forecasts.
A total of 57 tropical cyclones occurred during the 100 year period.
Average seasonal risk for Tropical Cyclone conditions (hurricane or tropical storm) = 57%
Average seasonal risk of Tropical Storm "only" conditions 
= 30%
= 30% Average seasonal risk of Hurricane conditions = 27%
Hurricane Forecast Zone Issued by: Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
GWO model predictions - 2015
Hurricane conditions = 65% risk *Major hurricane Cat 3-5 = 60% risk Tropical Storm conditions= 75% risk GWO PFM Model Predicted Risk Outlooks - 2016 through 2018 2016 Hurricane conditions= 45% risk
Hurricane conditions= 45% risk *Major hurricane Cat 3-5 = 20% risk Tropical Storm conditions= 60% risk 2017Hurricane conditions = 35% risk GWO El Niño prediction
Hurricane conditions = 35% risk GWO El Niño prediction *Major Hurricane =<10% risk Tropical Storm conditions= 50% risk 2018Hurricane conditions = 70% risk
Hurricane conditions = 70% risk *Major hurricane Cat 3-5 = 50% risk Tropical Storm conditions= 60% risk Analysis and Summary
GWO PFM cycles research indicates this zone is entering a very active 4-year PFM tropical cyclone cycle with 2 strong PFM cycles merging during the upcoming 4 year period.
The first year of the strong PFM point is 2015 and the second cycle occurs in the 2018 time frame. In tracking 8 similar historical strong PFM cycles and the occurrence of hurricanes during those cycles, major (CAT 3-5) hurricanes occurred about 50 percent of the time during these cycles. The major hurricanes occurred in 1906, 1933, 1964, 2004 and 2005. Thus GWO model expectations are for a high risk for two hurricanes – one of them likely to be a major hurricane, but a very high risk for at least one hurricane during the 4 year period.
The year 2015 is predicted to be at high risk for hurricane and tropical storm conditions due, in part, to surrounding zones also being at high risk. Because the predicted risk probability is 60% for a hurricane and 60% for a major hurricane in 2018, it is likely that a hurricane that hits this zone would be a major hurricane.
An El Niño is predicted by GWO to occur in 2017, thus reducing the high risk for hurricane conditions somewhat and resulting in a higher risk of hurricane conditions in 2018. Nevertheless it is important to remember that hurricane Andrew occurred during an El Niño year in 1992.
Bottom line for this zone – at least two hurricanes are likely during the next 4 years, with a high risk for one major hurricane.
Benefits of GWO Risk Probabilities for Hurricane
Specialized Landfall Forecasts 1 to 4 years in advance, allows your company important business planning for your industry, which is strongly affected by tropical cyclone strikes.
Important information for enhancing your company’s strategy to expand or reduce coverage in new or existing coastal areas.
GWO’s Hurricane Landfall Risk Probability predictions give a detailed forecast for each of eleven zones for the probability of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), and separate probability forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms. An outlook for the following 3 years is also given with each one year forecast. The current year forecast and 3 year outlook can provide valuable information for strategic planning.
Recommended Actions You Can Take Now
If the information you’ve read in this GWO electronic bulletin is of interest to your company, GWO would be pleased to visit your corporate headquarters and do a presentation for you and your invited staff. The data you will view are unique and based on solid science. There is no other current long range cycle prediction technique that can produce the proven accurate results of the Primary Forcing Mechanism pioneered by David Dilley.
To arrange a presentation, or for further information, contact one of the following meteorologists below, based on your company’s location:
David Dilley, Ocala, FL (352)732-8170, e-mail: dilleygwo@aol.com
Any area from New England to Texas.
David Spiegler, Delray Beach, FL (561)498-3795, e-mail dbswx.impact@yahoo.com
Southeast FL, southern New England
Thomas McGuire, Venice, FL (941) 244-0860, e-mail: tmcguire978@hotmail.com
Southwest FL
After evaluating GWO’s presentation for the benefits it can provide to your company, we would like to provide you with a formal written proposal. If the proposal is accepted, and a contract/Purchase Order is received by GWO, a Handbook will be provided by GWO to your company for tropical cyclone, hurricane, and tropical storm risk probabilities for the 2012 season for 11 coastal zones. A detailed 3-year outlook for each zone for 2013-2015, will be available December of 2011. We believe GWO’s proven track record for the risk probability predictions will be of significant value to your company for current and future strategic business planning.
If you act now, there is still time to get the edge on hurricane and tropical storm activity in your company’s areas of concern for 2012.
Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Hurricane Risk Predictions Earthquake Predictions
El Niño Predictions La Niña Predictions
Climate Change - Weather Cycles Predictions
Accurate Long-Range Predictions Extending out 4 years and Beyond
Accurate Hurricane Risk Prediction Service
by Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.
Services We Offer:
- Accurate long lange climate planning forecasts based on the "PFM" Primary Forcing Mechanism for Climate "Milankovitch Cycles of the Lunisolar Precession". Research by meteorologists belonging to the American Meteorological Society (AMS), and David Dilley of GWO, have shown the PFM to be a powerful forcing mechanism that determines the meandering positons of the Atlantic and Pacific High Pressure centers from one year to the next, and in turn, regional weather/climate cycles.
- Accurate Hurricane and Tropical Storm Landfall forecasts 1 to 4 Years in advance based on the PFM Primary Forcing Mechanism. The forecasts include risk probabilities for each zone for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions, and the risk probabilities for a major hurricane. During the past 6 hurricane seasons, GWO has a near 85% correct accuracy in forecasting which of the 11 forecast zones will be hot spots for tropical cyclone activity. GWO forecasts are available for 11 forecast regions from Texas to New England. Forecasts are for risk planning for insurance and Reinsurance companies, and other companies and institutions which require long-range risk and response planning.
- El Niño Forecasts and Nino 3.4 forecasts 1 to 10 years in advance.
- Regional Earthquake forecasts for major earthquakes 1 to 25 years in advance.
- Natural cycles of Global Warming, Global Cooling and Carbon Dioxide extending out 200 years.
- Regional Drought forecasts 1 to 10 years in advance.
- Regional flood forecasting for historical events.
- GWO Prepares Specialized Forecasts for" contact us for more information.
- Presentations on climate change and carbon dioxide cycles.
Hurricane Services for 2012 through 2015
Begin Planning For the 2012 Hurricane Season, and for the 2013 Through 2015 Seasons.
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) provides accurate predictions of landfall risks for hurricanes, major hurricanes and tropical storms up to 4 years in advance. Forecasts are prepared In September and December prior to the beginning of the next hurricane season, with forecasts extending 4 years out in time.
During the past 6 years, GWO has a near 90% accuracy predicting what areas of the U.S. coastline will have active tropical cyclones, or what GWO calls "hot spots" for activity. GWO has 11 specified forecast zones along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. from Florida north to New England and west to Texas and northern Mexico. Interested parties may purchase as many zone forecasts as they desire (1 to 11), and as many years you desire (1 to 4). You can receive risk probability predictions for all forecast zones, or just one or more specific zones (see details of our product below).
We invite you and your strategic planning staff to review our reliable hurricane risk probability forecast service. Your company would benefit greatly by cutting costs and/or increasing profits through enhancing your strategic planning and/or inventory management functions.
GWO has 20 years of long range climate cycle experience and research. The verification for GWO forecasts and past hurricane tracks for the past 5 years (2006-2010) have confirmed the capability of our unique methodology. The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM), discovered by GWO founder David Dilley, has accurately forecast risk probabilities for hurricane landfalls in the coastal areas from New England to Texas.
While other organizations only make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of major hurricanes, GWO’s technique gives accurate predictions of landfall risks up to 4 years in advance within 11 specified forecast zones along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. from Florida north to New England and west to the Texas-Mexico border. Of special note is the relationship that GWO discovered between the PFM and the average location of the semi-permanent High Pressure system in the Western Atlantic, known as the 'Bermuda High'. The circulation around the location of the Bermuda High when tropical cyclones are in progress influences the paths they will traverse and where their potential landfalls may be expected. PFM data and climatology differ for each of the 11 coastal zones.
If interested in our service, please contact us. We will prepare a proposal specifically for your company with options to receive risk probability predictions for all forecast zones, or for a subset of one or more specific zones. You will also have the option to select a 3-year contract with annual updates or a one-year contract. If there are other options you would like to see, please contact us and we will be pleased to provide them.
Example of a 4-Year Zone Forecast Prepared by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
GWO prepares tropical storm and hurricane risk forecasts for 11 United States zones stretching from New England to northern Mexico. The predictions for all zones are for the upcoming year with accurate outlooks extending out an additional 3- years. The graphic below illustrates these 11 zones, and an example of text version forecast can be seen below the zone graphic.
The zone forecasts are issued to our current clients in September and December preceding the next hurricane season. If your planning schedule for the 2012 season allows, you can request a proposal/contract form from GWO through the "Contact us" section or via telephone.
