Hurricane Risk Forecasts
by GWO
Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
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Accurate Hurricane Risk Prediction Service
by Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.
Annual Verification for the GWO Hurricane Forecasts Model 2006 through 2010
Proven Hurricane Risk Strategies
for Insurance Companies and Industries -
Offered by: Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), Ocala, FL
We invite you and your risk management staff to review this electronic bulletin to determine whether having a reliable hurricane risk probability forecast can be of value to your company.
GWO's 2009 hurricane, tropical storm and El Niño long-range forecasts issued 16 months prior to the 2009 hurricane season, was right on the money in predicting an el Nino year, and no hurricane landfalls in 2009. The GWO forecast issued in December of 2010 correctly predicted Hurricane Irene along the Atlantic east coast from the Carolina's to New England.
There is a high benefit/cost ratio to be had for your company when you use our unique hurricane and tropical storm risk predictions. Millions of dollars can be saved/earned for your company through reduced losses and/or increased profits by taking appropriate actions for your industry operations. Knowing the risk probabilities for hurricane and tropical storm force winds for specific zones on the U.S. east and Gulf coasts – far in advance of the hurricane season – can be an immense value to your company.
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) has 21 years of long range climate cycle experience and research. The verification results of the past 6 years (2006-2011) have confirmed that the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) discovered by GWO founder David Dilley, has led to accurate forecasting of risk probabilities for hurricane and tropical storm landfalls in the coastal areas from New England to Texas.
While other organizations only make seasonal forecasts of the number of tropical cyclones and number of major hurricanes, GWO’s technique gives accurate predictions of landfall risks up to 4 years in advance within specified forecast zones along the east and Gulf coasts of the U.S. from New England south to Florida and from Florida west to the Texas-Mexico border, Of special note is the PFM’s capability to predict the average location of the semi-permanent High Pressure system in the Western Atlantic, known as the “Bermuda High”. The clockwise circulation around the Bermuda High greatly influences the paths of tropical cyclones and where their potential landfalls may be expected.
The GWO risk probability forecast is for 11 U. S. coastal zones, with a specific forecast for each zone, because the PFM data and climate cycles differ for each zone. For the 2008 hurricane season (see graph Page 3), GWO’s prediction for zone 10, which includes most of Texas and Western Louisiana, was tagged as a “High Risk Zone” for tropical cyclone landfalls. This zone was impacted by two category 2 hurricanes (Gustav and Ike) and a strong tropical storm (Eduardo). Hurricane Ike turned out to be the third costliest hurricane to strike the U.S.; damage estimates are over 25 billion dollars! GWO’s forecast was right on target. Using the unique PFM prediction method, GWO is able to create outlooks of risk probabilities that have predictive skill, for several years in the future.
David B. Spiegler is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist (CCM) and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) who has developed, under contract with U.S. Government agencies, several analysis and prediction techniques that have been used, and are used, operationally. He has a M.S. Degree in Meteorology from New York University.
Thomas McGuire, National Weather Service (Ret.), is a senior consultant to GWO, and was the National Weather Service Area Manager for Southern New England. He has a B. A. Degree in Meteorology from New York University.
Benefits of GWO Risk Probabilities for Hurricane
Allows for important business planning for your industry, which is strongly affected by tropical cyclone strikes.
Important information for enhancing your company’s strategy to expand or reduce coverage in new or existing coastal areas.
GWO’s Hurricane Landfall Risk Probability predictions give a detailed forecast for each of eleven zones for the probability of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms), and separate probability forecasts for hurricanes and tropical storms. An outlook for the following 3 years is also given with each one year forecast. The current year forecast and 3 year outlook can provide valuable information for strategic planning.
Verification:
GWO 2010 Forecasts and Storm Tracks
GWO 2009 Forecasts and Storm Tracks
Excellent GWO Hurricane Landfall Risk Prediction Skill for the 2009 Season
In early April 2009 - 2 months before the hurricane season was to begin - GWO predicted a below average season with none of the 11 coastal zones expected to experience hurricane force winds. For the first time in 3 years there was no land-falling hurricane on the U. S. coast - an excellent long range forecast by GWO.
Prior to the 2009 season, both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the group at Colorado State University (CSU) predicted a somewhat above average season. There was an implication that one of our coastal zones was likely to experience hurricane conditions, but there was not a specific forecast of that happening. Their mid-season (August) forecast from both organizations only slightly decreased the expected number of storms and were still less accurate than the GWO forecast issued in April 2009.
2008 GWO Hurricane Risk Predictive Skill
Based on evaluations of predicted risk vs. hurricane landfalls, predictive skill was:
Very Good to Excellent for HIGH RISK zones
Very good for MODERATE RISK zones
For the 2008 hurricane season, GWO’s prediction for zone 10, which includes most of Texas and Western Louisiana, was tagged as a "High Risk Zone" for tropical cyclone landfalls. This zone was impacted by two category 2 hurricanes (Gustav and Ike) and a strong tropical storm (Edourd). Hurricane Ike turned out to be the third costliest hurricane to strike the U.S.; damage estimates are over 25 billion dollars! GWO’s forecast was right on target. Using the unique PFM prediction method, outlooks having predictive skill can be made several years in advance.
We performed the same validations (predicted vs. actual) for 2006 and 2007, with equally excellent results. For the year 2007 in Figure 3 below, GWO red flagged a high risk for Texas, Florida and southern New England. Two systems made landfall in Texas, one in Florida and New England respectively.
2007 GWO Hurricane Risk Predictive Skill
Figure 3 above. Shows 3 low to moderate risk areas forecast by GWO for the 2009 season. The areas are shaded yellow and the forecast called for no hurricane landfalls and only a low-moderate risk for Tropical Storms. The white circles note the hot spot areas expected in 2009.
Figure 4 below. Shows the actual hurricane and tropical storm tracks for 2009. There were no hurricane landfalls. Tropical Storm Danny threatened the eastern North Carolina zone and then became extra-tropical as it moved northeast. Claudette moved across south Florida as a tropical depression and made landfall as a weak tropical storm along the upper Gulf. Hurricane Ida weakened rapidly and made landfall in the upper Gulf as a weak tropical storm.
Figure 7 above. GWO 2007 risk forecast called for a high risk (red) for Texas into western Louisiana, west coast Florida and New England. Moderate risk for extreme south Florida and eastern North Carolina.
Figure 8 below. Tropical cyclones made landfalls in all areas red and yellow flagged as high risk, and moderate risk.
Figure 1 above. Shows the GWO high risk areas in red and the moderate risk area in yellow. The white circles indicates hot spot active areas for 2010.
Figure 2 below. Shows the actual tracks of the 2010 tropical storms and hurricanes. All forecast hot spots circled in red were indeed the active coastal areas for tropical cyclones during the 2010 hurricane season. The south Texas-Mexico zone had 3 tropical cyclones, upper gulf zone 1 cyclone, south Florida zone 1 cyclone with 2 more on the south fringe of the zone. The eastern North Carolina zone had hurricane Earl pass just to the east with topical storm conditions in the zone.
Figure 5 above. In 2008 GWO red and yellow flagged Texas, west Florida, mid and upper Atlantic seaboard as a high risk for hurricane and tropical storm activity.
Figure 6 below. Texas was hit 5 times, Florida had a strong tropical storm meander across the state. Carolina's to New England had tropical storm activity and the first hurricane watch/warning in 19 years was issued for eastern New England..
2006 GWO Hurricane Risk Predictive Skill
Figure 9 above. GWO forecast a high tropical cyclone risk for west Florida in 2006, moderate risk for extreme south Florida, eastern North Carolina and southern New England.
Figure 10 below. All tropical cyclones made landfalls within the forecast risk areas. Florida experienced 2 tropical storms, one occurring on the far north portion of the forecast zone and the other on the far south portion of the forecast zone.
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