Hurricane Risk Forecasts
by GWO
Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Hurricane Risk Predictions
Climate Change
Climate - Weather Cycles
Global Weather Oscillations
Tropical Weather
Climate Change
Accurate Hurricane Risk Prediction Service
by Global Weather Oscillations, Inc.
Figure 1. Shows 11 forecast zones from New England to Texas.2010 Zone Forecasts
2010 GWO Hurricane Landfall Forecast Issued February
(released to the public via press release June 3, 2010)
Figure 2. Shows red flagged high risk areas for much of Florida and the upper Gulf States from Central Louisiana to Florida, and extreme south Texas to northern Mexico. Figure 3. Shows the most likely storm tracks near land during the 2010 hurricane season. 2010 Zone Forecast Press Release June 3
Released to Clients in February 2010 public release via press release June 3, 2010)Hurricane Forecast from Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Continental U.S. Coastline will see South Florida and the Upper Gulf in the 2010 Bulls Eye for Hurricane Landfalls... as well as the Northeastern Mexico Coast.
South Florida, upper Gulf and northeastern Mexico to near Corpus Christi in South Texas red flagged for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions in 2010....areas close to the red flagged areas yellow flagged
Chief climate forecaster David Dilley in Ocala Florida, says the 2010 season will be an about face from 2009 which saw the development of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by the El Niño. No hurricanes affected the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States in 2009.
Dilley says "The stage is set for a much more active hurricane season in 2010", with GWO red flagging extreme south Florida from near Miami and Naples - southward through the Keys. This area has a risk for multiple landfalls and a major category 3 or greater hurricane. GWO's hurricane model is tracking 5 similar climate cycles that have occurred during the past 100 years, with 4 of 5 cycles producing major hurricanes in the Keys or extreme south Florida.
A second area red flagged by GWO is the upper Gulf States from Central Louisiana eastward into the western Panhandle of Florida. A third red flagged area is northeastern Mexico into South Texas near Corpus Christi. This area is also at risk for a major hurricane. Other hurricanes and tropical storms will track around the Bermuda high with some skirting eastern North Carolina before heading out to sea, and across the Gulf into northern Mexico. Additional information is available on GWO's hurricane web site www.hurricaneriskpredictions.com
The stage is set this summer; the tropical Atlantic Ocean is warmer than normal, the El Niño is gone, and the upper atmosphere wind shear that suppressed development of storms last year is already noticeably less. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High Pressure Center that changes position and strength from one season to the next, is now settling into its location for this summer, which will influence the ultimate path of storms during the season.
GWO’s prediction model is based on a concept of climate cycles, with these cycles built around a Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) that ultimately controls these climate cycles. The PFM plays a significant role in controlling the position of the Bermuda High pressure center from one year to the next.
GWO is in its fifth year of issuing landfall forecasts for hurricane and tropical storms for 11 coastal zones along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. GWO clients receive proven accurate yearly forecasts with outlooks for an additional 3 years. Prior to the 2008 season, Dilley red flagged western Louisiana and Texas, and there were 5 hurricane and tropical storm landfalls in that region. A full year prior to the 2009 hurricane season, Dilley predicted an El Niño would drastically suppress the hurricane activity during the 2009 season, and that there would be no hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coast. In 2009 there were no hurricane landfalls.
David Dilley is a meteorologist, climate researcher and forecaster with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) in Ocala Florida. Additional information on the El Niño, Global Warming and Carbon Dioxide cycles, and hurricanes is available at http://www.globalweathercycles.com.
Most Likely Tropical Cyclone Tracks for the 2010 Season
Atlantic Names for 2010
Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter
GWO Prepares Forecasts for 11 Zones from Maine to Texas
- Forecasts include the current year with zone outlooks for an additional 3 years
- Issued to clients by early February, general public after June 1
Specializing in Hurricane and Climate Cycle Forecasts Extending out 4 years and Beyond
