La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
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January 2025 into January 2027
( coming late January )
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1. ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion: Updated 02 December 2024
GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - El Niño would form by July 2024
a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
ENSO Neutral Conditions - into January
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 06 November 2024 to 27 November 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks from 06 November to 27 November 2024 - the area of cooler than normal surface water (blue colors in top panel) has not enlarged or strengthened due to the lack of upwelling of the colder than normal subsurface water below.
The Subsurface Water (left graphic) has not strengthened or enlarged in area during the past 6 weeks, and this is delaying upwelling of cooler water to the surface - and delaying the formation of a La Nina event.
Neutral ENSO conditions will continue into January 2025.
GWO's 2-Year Prediction into January 2027 purhcase here
b. NOAA - ENSO Neutral - La Niña Watch - updated 01 December 2024
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are mostly near average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.*
2. Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 01 December 2024
a. Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures
(down to 250 meters) - see figure 1 below
For an El Niño or La Niña to Form - the subsurface water must warm or cool dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer or cooler than normal water upwell to the surface.
El Niño events are associated with much warmer than normal surface and subsurface temperatures.
La Niña events are the opposite and are associated with much cooler than normal surface and subsurface temperatures.
During the period from 05 October to 24 November 2024 (top to bottom panels) -
the area of colder than normal subsurface water remained about the same during the past 6 weeks - and is not upwelling to the surface in much of the Central and Eastern area of the Equatorial Pacific to the west of South American.
The lack of intensification and arial coverage has delayed upwelling of colder water to the surface - and thus has delayed the formation of a La Nina event - or near La Nina event.
GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction covers what will occur from January 2025 into January 2027.
Find Out When the next El Niño will begin - and end
2- Year GWO Predictions
La Niña and Next El Niño Predictions click here
b. Surface Water Temperatures: Niño 3.4 Region
The graphic panels (below left) show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have not cooled further during the past 2 months - but as of 24 November the cooling has stopped due to a stopped and there was an actual rise in temperatures due to the lack of upwelling of colder subsurface water to the surface (see graphic on far left)
ENSO Neutral Conditions - neither El Niño nor La Niña Ocean temperature anomalies will continue into January 2025
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years
3. Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
Current Conditions and Analysis
Updated 01 December 2024
Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
Click Images to Enlarge
Subsurface Temperatures
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)
During the period from 05 October to 24 November 2024 (top to bottom panels) -
the area of colder than normal subsurface water remained about the same during the past 6 weeks - and is not upwelling to the surface in much of the Central and Eastern area of the Equatorial Pacific to the west of South American.
The lack of intensification and arial coverage has delayed upwelling of colder water to the surface - and thus has delayed the formation of a La Nina event - or near La Nina event.
GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction covers what will occur from January 2025 into January 2027.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Click Images to Enlarge
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 06 November 2024 to 27 November 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks from 06 November to 27 November 2024 - the area of cooler than normal surface water (blue colors in top panel) has not enlarged or strengthened due to the lack of upwelling of the colder than normal subsurface water below.
The Subsurface Water (left graphic) has not strengthened or enlarged in area during the past 6 weeks, and this is delaying upwelling of cooler water to the surface - and delaying the formation of a La Nina event.
Neutral ENSO conditions will continue into January 2025.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into January of 2027.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Image to Enlarge
Nino Region 3.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have not cooled further during the past 2 months - but as of 24 November the cooling has stopped due to a stopped and there was an actual rise in temperatures due to the lack of upwelling of colder subsurface water to the surface (see graphic on far left)
ENSO Neutral Conditions - neither El Niño nor La Niña Ocean temperature anomalies will continue into January 2025
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2024
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures