Definitions:  Prediction Categories ( expressed in Probability for Occurence in Percent - and Liklihood )

                               Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent

                               for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.

                               Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk:    Low - Moderate- High.

 

                                                                          Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:

                                                   Category                   Probability                       Event Liklihood

                                                   High Risk                 60%  to  80%                     Expected to occur

                                                   Moderate Risk       40%  to  55%                     possible – but not likely

                                                   Low risk                     5%  to  35%                     not expected

 

                                                                                   Major Hurricane:

                                            *If a hurricane actually occurs – the risk it will be a major hurricane

                                                    Category                   Probability             

                                                    High Risk                 50%  to  70%                Expected to Occur

                                                    Moderate Risk       25%  to  45%                Possible - but not likely

                                                    Low Risk                 less  than  25%            Not Expected

 

Zone 1 Predictons for 2011 and 2012

 

New York City  Metropolitan Area - Long Island, NY

New England Coastline

 

 

Climatology

Based on 111 years of record (1903-2013) for either hurricane conditions occurring somewhere within the zone during that year, or if no hurricane, a year with tropical storm conditions occurring somewhere within the zone.

 

A total of 31 years had a tropical cyclone occur (hurricane and/or tropical storm) affect some portion of the zone (28% annual risk). Of the 31 tropical cyclones that occurred over the 111 year period, 22 were tropical storms, and only 9 were hurricanes, three of which were major. Climatologically, this is considered to have a low to moderate risk for tropical cyclones.  The tropical storm return frequency is relatively low averaging 2 tropical storms per 10 years.  Based on the long term average, the climatological average annual risk frequency (CAAR) is quite low with just under an average of 1 hurricane per 10 years.  However, the frequencies are cyclical with some active 4 to 8 year periods, and some very inactive 8 year periods resulting in very low risks for hurricanes and tropical storms. Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model (GWO-CPTM) identifies these cycles and incorporates them into the predicted risks.

 

Climatology - Average Annual Risk:

A total of 31 tropical cyclones occurred during the 111 year period.

 

Climatological average annual risk (CAAR) for Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Conditions         =  28  %  

Climatological average annual risk (CAAR) for Tropical Storm "only" conditions                               =  20 %

Climatological average Annual risk (CAAR) for hurricane conditions                                                     =   8  % 

Climatological average annual risk (CAAR) for major hurricane (CAT 3 or greater)                             =  3  % 

Percent of hurricanes that were major hurricanes (CAT 3 or greater)                                                    = 33  % 

             

The GWO-CPT predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (climatological average annual risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table below. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that specific year to the long-term average annual risk. The color red is assigned when there is a high risk that the predicted event will occur. The high risk category ranges from 60% to 80% and indicates GWO expects the event is likely to occur.

 

Definitions:  Risk Prediction Categories

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.

Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk; Low, Moderate and High.

 

                                                             Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:

                                       Category                  Probability                           Prospect

                                       High Risk                60% to 80%                      likely to occur

                                       Moderate Risk      40% to 55%                      possible – but not likely

                                       Low risk                    5% to 35%                      not expected

 

                           Major Hurricane:  If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane

                                      Category                 Probability             

                                     High Risk                50% to 70%                (if a hurricane occurs)

                                     Moderate Risk      25% to 45%                (if a hurricane occurs)

                                     Low Risk              less than 25%               (if a hurricane occurs)

 

 

Prediction:    Predictions:  Years  2011 - 2012   

 

Zone 1

New York City  Metropolitan Area - Long Island, NY

New England Coastline

 

 

  

                                                                                                Predicted              Event Expected           Average Annual

                                                                                                     Risk                                                                     Risk                  

2011  Hurricane conditions                                            60 %     High               expected  to occur           8 %

           Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs          45 %     High               not expected                     3 %

           Tropical Storm conditions                                   70 %     High               expected to occur          28 %

 

2012   Hurricane conditions                                          60 %     High Risk       Likely                                   8 %     

           Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs         50 %     Moderate      possible                               3 %

           Tropical Storm conditions                                  75 %     High Risk       Expected                            28 %                                             

  *Note:    Hurricanes listed below made landfall in 2011 and 2012

                     2011-  Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene hugged the New Jersey Shoreline in 2011 then made

                               landfall extreme western Long Island

                  2012 - Super Storm Sandy made landfall in Central New Jersey

 

Prediction - Analysis and Summary 

 

Northeast States entering the strongest hurricane cycle for this region in 50 years”. 

 

Analysis of the GWO *Climate Pulse Technology Hurricane Model predicts indicates there is a 70% risk for a hurricane hitting the New Jersey, Long Island and/or southern New England in 2011 or 2012.

 

GWO's Climate Pulse Hurricane Model shows historical 4-year periods in which this zone usually experiences one direct

hurricane landfall, 1 or 2 hurricanes which skirt Cape Cod, and 1 or 2 tropical storms. Historical records indicate that during

these cycles, a hurricane which passes near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, is followed by

a land-falling hurricane within 1 or 2 years of this event.  In 2010 hurricane Earl traveled just offshore from the North Carolina

coast and moved north-northeast just to the southeast of Cape Cod. This event is likely the precursor for a land-falling

hurricane or strong tropical storm in 2011.

 

Analysis of the GWO model predicts at least one year with a hurricane. Expect a Category 1 or 2 storm -  though a risk does

exist for a major hurricane tracking rapidly north to northeast just offshore of the North Carolina coast and reaching New Jersey,

Long Island and southern New England coastal areas as a Category 2. The last Category 3 hurricane to strike this zone was in

1954. There remains some controversy as to whether Hurricane Gloria in 1985 struck Long Island as a Category 2 or 3. 

Since then, the population in the coastal areas has increased dramatically along with tremendous amount of new construction

over the last half century. A major hurricane affecting this zone presents a high risk for significant property damage.

 

The GWO Climate Pulse Hurricane Model indicates that this zone will enter a very active cycle centered on 2011 and 2012,

the strongest and most active cycle for this region in 50 years. It is likely to produce the first hurricane to strike the Northeast

Coastal areas in 20 years.  Hurricanes which hit New England and Long Island and the New Jersey area occurred on these

cycles in 1903, 1944, and Hurricane Bob in 1991.

 

Climate Pulse Analog years similar to 2011 and 2012:

When looking at GWO-CPTM Model analog years, the predominate analog years most similar to 2011 and 2012 are  years 1991,

1944, and 1903. 

In 1903 a Category 1 hurricane made landfall near Cape May New Jersey in mid-September, with tropical force winds near the New York City area.

In 1944 - A Category 3 Hurricane moved northeast across Cape Hatteras NC in mid-September, skirting the New Jersey coast and finally making landfall as a Category 2 in eastern Long Island and Rhode Island.

In 1991 - Hurricane Bob moved Northeast across Cape Hatteras NC as a Category 3 in Mid-August, and then across Eastern Long Island into Rhode Island as a Category 2 in mid to late August.