2016 Hurricane Season Predictions

                                      Climate Pulse Technology Model by GWO  

 

 

Risk Prediction Definitions:

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model assigns a risk probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.

 

 

Definitions:  Risk Prediction

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.

Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk; Low, Moderate and High.

 

                   Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:

                             Category                  Probability                           Prospect

                            High Risk                  60% to 80%                     likely to occur

                            Moderate Risk        40% to 55%                     possible – but not likely

                            Low risk                      5% to 35%                     not expected

 

                  Major Hurricane:  If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane

                            Category                 Probability             

                            High Risk                50% to 70%              (if a hurricane occurs)

                            Moderate Risk      25% to 45%              (if a hurricane occurs)

                            Low Risk                 less than 25%          (if a hurricane occurs)

 

 

In the Predictions Below –

The predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that specific year to the long-term average annual risk.

 

 

Prediction:

Zone  1

New York City  Metropolitan Area –

Long Island, NY New England Coastline  

 

                   

                                                                                          Predicted Risk                Event likelihood    

2016  Hurricane conditions                                      25 %   Low Risk              not expected to occur

           Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs    10 %   Low Risk              not expected to occur  

           Tropical Storm conditions                             50 %  Moderate Risk    possible Cape Cod

 

* Note: when GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 20% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that particular zone.

 

 

Analysis and Summary  - Not available with the “Economy Consumer” – is available with the “Consumer” package.  You may upgrade to the “Consumer”, purchase of the “Economy Consumer” will be credited toward your purchase.

 

Disclaimer for Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Risk Probabilities for the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States for 2014*

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), GWO MAKES NO EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR INTENDED USE OR OF MERCHANTABILITY (WHICH ARE DISCLAIMED). GWO ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE USE BY YOU OR YOUR EMPLOYEES OR CLIENTS OF THE TROPICALCYCLONE, TROPICAL STORM, AND HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES. GWO SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM USING THE RISK PROBABILITIES OR RELATED INFORMATION.

IN NO EVENT SHALL GWO BE LIABLE FOR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, AND EXEMPLARY OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES OR LOST PROFITS OR DAMAGES FROM LOSS OF USE OR DATA OR OTHER CAUSE OF ACTION RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OR NON-PERFORMANCE OF GWO. ANY ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN BY THE USER OF THE GWO PROBABILITY RISKS IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE USER.

OFFICIAL SOURCES (US GOVERNMENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER - NHC) SHOULD BE CONSIIDERED BEFORE ANY PLANS ARE MADE REGARDING IN-PROGRESS TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES. THE LINK TO THE NHC IS http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

*Standard type of disclaimer for the meteorological services industry